Market environment

The year 2025 marked a period of gradual recovery for the Polish residential property market following several years of significant volatility. It moved from         a phase of demand-driven momentum and dynamic price rises to a stage of stabilization based on factors such as rising GDP growth, availability of financing, growth in average wages, easing monetary policy, a slowdown in inflation and stable unemployment levels.

Despite a decline in the number of building permits issued in Q4 2025 (over 29,600 – a 6.86% month-on-month decrease), the total number of residential units available on the primary market in Poland remained at the previous quarter’s level, amounting to approximately 62,000 flats.

During this period, developers in the seven largest conurbations (Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, the Tri-City, Poznań, Łódź, Katowice) launched 14,100 new flats (44.2% more than in the previous quarter), whilst over 11,600 units were sold (3.9% more than in Q3 2025).

In the fourth quarter of 2025, although the environment for the housing market was moderately favourable, inflation close to target and further significant interest rate cuts led to a further improvement in mortgage financing conditions. Over 113,000 applications were submitted, representing a 30% increase compared to the same period last year. The number of housing loans granted in Poland between October and December 2025 stood at 64,228 (down 0.88% compared to Q3) and amounted to a record total of over PLN 29.227 billion            (up 0.19% quarter-on-quarter). In total, last year banks granted nearly 233,000 new mortgage loans and closed the year with an impressive lending volume exceeding PLN 103 billion – this is 15% more (in number) and over 20% more          (in value) than in 2024.

The average value of mortgage loans granted in the fourth quarter of 2025 stood at PLN 455,074, representing an increase of just 1% compared with the previous quarter, which indicates a slowdown in previous growth trends. However,               the structure of the loans has changed – fixed-rate loans still predominate,         but their share has fallen significantly (by nearly 11 percentage points compared to Q3, and by as much as a quarter year-on-year).

The key driver of these changes was the cycle of interest rate cuts, which significantly improved Poles’ creditworthiness and reduced financing costs.               In 2025, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) carried out a total of six cuts to the reference rate (in May, July, September, October, November and December) – by as much as 175 basis points over the year (from 5.75% to 4.00%). In March of this year, there was a further cut of 25 basis points (to 3.75%).

The residential property market in Q4 2025 showed similar price trends to the previous quarter – most cities recorded only slight changes in average transaction prices (by just a few per cent over the year as a whole).                             The exceptions are Wrocław and Kraków, where there were slight falls of less than 1.5%. Warsaw retained its status as the most expensive market.

It should be borne in mind that the asking price, the transaction price and the asking price of a property actually sold are not the same thing. The discrepancies between these levels reflect the extent of negotiations.

Thus, the average asking price per m² in Q4 2025 was: in Warsaw ~18,700 PLN/m² (approx. +0.5% MoM), Kraków ~PLN 16,900/m² (-1.5% MoM),                          Wrocław ~PLN 15,100/m² (-1.5% MoM), Łódź ~PLN 11,500/m²                            (approx. +2% MoM), the Tri-City ~PLN 17,800/m² (approx. +0.5% MoM)                       and Poznań ~PLN 13,800/m² (approx. +1.0% MoM).

In overall annual terms, major regional cities saw slight price fluctuations – mainly in the single digits. In most cases, these were changes in the average asking price on both a quarterly and annual basis.