Market environment

The first quarter of 2026 saw the Polish residential property market continue the recovery that began towards the end of the previous year. The sector has moved beyond a wait-and-see phase and, driven by factors such as rising GDP growth, access to finance, rising average wages, easing monetary policy, a slight rise in inflation and unemployment, it definitively moved into a phase of high buyer activity (with particular emphasis on those who had held off on decisions for most of 2025).

Between January and March 2026, building permits were issued for 45,900 flats (an increase of 11% compared to the same period last year), bringing the total number of residential units available on the primary market in Poland to approximately 58,900.

During this period, developers in the seven largest urban areas (Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, the Tri-City, Poznań, Łódź and Katowice) launched 10,300 new flats onto the market (27% fewer than in the previous quarter), whilst over 12,900 units were sold (11.1% more than in Q4 2025).

The results for the first quarter of 2026 maintained and reinforced the trend of a recovery in lending seen over the last three quarters.  Between January and March of this year, over 144,000 applications were submitted (January – 36,600, February – 44,500, March – 63,310), representing a 14% increase quarter-on-quarter. The total number of mortgage loans granted in Poland in the first three months of 2026 amounted to 73,126 (a record increase of 13.85% compared to Q4 and the highest figure in 18 years) and totalled over PLN 33,420 billion. (an increase of 14.34% quarter-on-quarter and as much as two-thirds compared to Q1 of last year).

The average value of housing loans granted in Q1 2026 was PLN 457,260 and, although this was only 0.5% higher than in the previous quarter, it rose by 8% compared to Q1 2025.

The key factors driving the unprecedented rise in demand for mortgage financing were an improvement in Poles’ creditworthiness [in March, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) cut key interest rates once again, bringing the rate down from 4.00% to 3.75%], rising wage growth and market competition among banks through consistent reductions in lending margins and the relaxation of requirements for borrowers.

Furthermore, such a dramatic shift in customer behaviour also stems from fears that the era of cheap financing is coming to an end, a sense of geopolitical uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices on global markets, and the spectre of a return to inflation.

The flat sales market in the first quarter of 2026 showed similar price trends to the previous quarter – most cities recorded only slight changes in average transaction prices (over the year as a whole, by just a few per cent, i.e. from -0.5% to +1%). The exception is Warsaw, which continues to hold the status of the most expensive market – here, a price increase of over 3.5% was recorded.

It is worth noting here that the asking price and the transaction price are two different things, and the difference between them reflects the extent of the negotiations.

And so, the average asking price per square metre in Q4 2025 was: in Warsaw ~PLN 19,900/m² (approx. +3.7% q/q), Kraków ~PLN 16,900/m² (unchanged MoM), Wrocław ~PLN 15,200/m² (+0.5% MoM), Łódź ~PLN 11,400/m² (-0.5% MoM), the Tri-City ~PLN 17,900/m² (approx. +0.5% MoM) and Poznań ~PLN 14,100/m² (approx. +1.0% MoM).

In overall annual terms, major regional cities saw slight price fluctuations – mainly in the single digits. In most cases, these were changes in the average asking price on both a quarterly and annual basis.