Market environment

The first half of 2026 on the Polish housing market consisted of two phases. The first saw a continuation of the recovery that had begun in late 2025 and brought record sales figures – in the seven largest local markets (Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, the Tri-City, Poznań, Łódź and Katowice), developers sold a total of 12,900 properties, representing an increase of 11.1 per cent month-on-month and as much as 35.2 per cent year-on-year. The second quarter saw a slowdown – just over 11,800 flats were sold across the seven markets, representing a fall of 8.4% compared with Q1, although this was still 12.7% more than in the corresponding quarter a year earlier.

In the second quarter of 2026, a total of approximately 13,100 new flats were brought to market across the seven markets, i.e. 27.6 per cent more than in the previous quarter. The largest volume of new supply appeared in Warsaw, Wrocław and Kraków. As a result, the supply at the end of the first half of 2026 across the seven main markets rose to around 70,300 flats – a level close to the record figures from 2021.

The terms of financing for the purchase of flats remained favourable in the first half of 2026. The NBP reference rate, cut in March to 3.75 per cent (a total reduction of 2 percentage points since May 2025), remained unchanged until July 2026, whilst the 3-month WIBOR stood at between 3.9 and 4.0 per cent.

According to BIK data, the number of people applying for a mortgage in each month of the first half of 2026 was as follows: 36,600 in January, 44,500 in February, 63,300 in March (the highest figure in 18 years), 42,300 in April, 45,100 in May and 42,800 in June.

In the second quarter of 2026, banks concluded 83,559 new mortgage agreements with a total value of PLN 39.745 billion – an increase of 14.3 per cent (in number) and 18.9 per cent (in value) quarter-on-quarter, the best performance in terms of volume since 2007 and an all-time record in value in the history of the Polish mortgage market. The average value of a loan granted rose to a record PLN 475,652 (+4.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter, +7.3 per cent year-on-year).

Throughout the first half of 2026, banks granted nearly 157,000 housing loans with a total value exceeding PLN 73 billion. This was due to a decline in the balance sheet value of this portfolio following court rulings invalidating contracts, rather than a real increase in credit risk.

Average asking prices for flats on the primary market at the end of the second quarter of 2026 remained stable in most cities. Warsaw retained its position as the most expensive market, with a price of nearly 20,000 PLN/m² (+0.5% month-on-month, +6.9% year-on-year), whilst Łódź remained the cheapest, at 11,300 PLN/m² (-0.9% month-on-month). The other markets recorded the following asking prices: the Tri-City at 18,400 PLN/m² (+2.8% month-on-month), Kraków PLN 16,9 thousand/m² (unchanged), Wrocław PLN 15,8 thousand/m² (+3.9% month-on-month), Poznań PLN 14,2 thousand/m² (+0.7% month-on-month) and Katowice PLN 12,7 thousand/m² (unchanged).

It should be borne in mind that asking prices still differ significantly from transaction prices – in most cases, buyers can expect substantial discounts on the list price, and this situation is likely to continue until the end of 2026.

This is confirmed by average transaction prices (as recorded in notarial deeds and bank valuations). In the second quarter of 2026, the highest transaction price per square metre of flat was recorded in Warsaw – 15,707 PLN (+4.0% quarter-on-quarter, +6.4% year-on-year). The next highest prices were recorded in Kraków – PLN 14,264 (+2.2% year-on-year), Gdańsk – PLN 12,803 (the highest annual growth rate among major cities: +7.5% y/y), Wrocław – PLN 11,812, Poznań – PLN 10,555 (+2.0% y/y) and Łódź – PLN 8,103 (+2.1% y/y). The situation in Wrocław is particularly interesting, where – in contrast to rising asking prices for new flats (JLL data) – the average transaction price was 2.9 per cent lower than a year earlier, which further confirms the growing discrepancy between developers’ price lists and the actual negotiated sale prices.