Market environment

The year 2025 brings a continuation of the trends observed in previous years on the Polish residential property market. Despite gradual stabilisation, the sector remains influenced by a number of macroeconomic and regulatory factors, as well as the ever-changing individual preferences of buyers.

Despite fluctuations in the number of building permits issued in Q3 2025 (July and August – decrease, September – increase), the total number of residential units available on the primary market in Poland remained at a similar level to Q2, amounting to approximately 60,000 flats. Compared to the end of June, the supply decreased by less than 1,500, or 2.4%. During this period, developers in the six largest agglomerations (Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Tricity, Poznań, Łódź), introduced less than 9,500 new flats (23% less than in the previous quarter), while over 10,800 units were sold (8% more than in Q2 2025).

In Q3 2025, despite the moderately favourable environment for the housing market, inflation close to the target and further interest rate cuts translated into a further significant improvement in loan financing conditions. Over 116,000 applications were submitted, representing a 36% increase compared to the same period last year. In September alone, a record number of nearly 41,000 applications were recorded (an increase of 42.2% year-on-year and the best result in over two years), and the number of applicants increased by approximately 39,900 (+40% year-on-year). The total number of housing loans granted in Poland in the period July-September 2025 amounted to almost 65,000 (17% more than in Q2) and amounted to a record sum of over PLN 29.1 billion, i.e. an increase of almost 1/5.

The significant increase in the availability of loans, especially in Q3 2025, was due to improved financing conditions. Banks continued to liberalise their lending policies, mainly by lowering margins in response to interest rate cuts. In May this year, the reference rate fell by 0.5 percentage points, in July by 0.25 percentage points (to 5.00%), and then in September by another 0.25 percentage points (to 4.75%), making mortgage instalments lower. Finally, in Q3 2025, the reference rate in Poland was 4.75%. All this resulted in an increase in creditworthiness and a noticeable decrease in financing costs.

The flat sales market in Q3 2025 maintained the price dynamics observed in the previous quarter, i.e. prices were generally stable or only slightly higher. In four of the six largest cities in Poland, average transaction prices per square metre increased slightly, with the highest increase of 2.5% in Gdańsk. In contrast, Łódź and Wrocław saw slight declines of 2% and just over 1% (compared to Q2 this year). 

Thus, the average price per square metre in Q3 2025 was: in Warsaw ~PLN 18,600/m² (approx. +0.5% q/q), Kraków ~PLN 16,900 per square metre (≈0% q/q), Wrocław ~PLN 13,600 per square metre (-1.5% q/q), Łódź ~PLN 9,366 per square metre (approx. -2% q/q), the Tri-City ~PLN 17,700 per square metre (+2% q/q) and Poznań ~PLN 13,500 per square metre (≈0% q/q).

Overall, slightly greater price fluctuations were recorded in large regional cities, but everywhere the changes in the average price of flats, both quarterly and annually, were in the single digits – in most cases not exceeding 5%.